By BethJ Asch
The briefing examines how the pay of enlisted group of workers compares to that in their civilian opposite numbers, how those comparisons have replaced through the years, how the FY 2000 pay activities impact the comparisons, and the way recruiting and retention have fared lately.
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Extra resources for An Analysis of Pay for Enlisted Personnel (Documented briefing)
We present a preliminary assessment of what effect the FY 00 pay action might have on recruiting and retention, and we indicate the potential impact on the services of a continuation of recent retention rates in the future, in the absence of the FY 00 pay action. In considering recent recruiting outcomes, it is useful to examine how the military’s overall recruiting requirement has changed over time. Following a steep drop in the requirement during the defense drawdown of the early 1990s, the overall requirement has been rising since the mid1990s.
Military experience, and it may be that civilian job experience has become relatively more valuable than it has been in the past. , computers) explains a large part of recent wage growth for college group • Recent technological changes are not a temporary phenomenon, though pace and impact on economy will change over time • Military requirements for high-quality personnel and those with technical skills are not likely to abate in the future and are likely to increase In seeking an explanation for the wage growth for those with a college degree, the economics literature points to technological change that is favoring the most skilled and educated workers.
The range reflects alternative forecasts about how civilian pay will change in the future. The upper-bound forecast is based on a linear extrapolation of the trend in the earnings of 17- to 26-year-old males who have a high school diploma. The real earnings of this group have been declining or are at best nearly flat. This means their nominal earnings are not expected to grow as fast as the CPI. The FY 2000 pay legislation, however, will cause military pay to rise faster than the Employment Cost Index for six years, and based on the outlook, military pay will grow faster than inflation.